Front Royal Fall Foliage in 2021: Our Predictions

Much in life is unpredictable, but with all the uncertainty in today’s world, it’s comforting to know that the seasons continue to come and go as they always have. While life always has itss difficulties, we can still look forward to enjoying another stunning fall in the Virginia hillsides around Front Royal.

2021

​But while they’re all similar no two falls are exactly the same. With the many factors that go into creating the beautiful colors of fall, it should be no surprise that there’s some variation from year to year. Certain colors might be more or less vibrant. The season could begin earlier or later, and could be more or less drawn out.

Photo Credit: Kerry Barnhart

Since we know a little bit about what causes the leaves to change, we can make some estimates as to how each fall will go. So, even though it’s apparently dangerous to make any kind of prediction in 2020, we’re going to be bold. Here are our best guesses as to the way the fall foliage will play out this year in the Front Royal area.

Splendid Fall Colors Coming Quickly in 2021​
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​Leaves are living things that come to life in the spring and die in the fall. Weather conditions during the entire lifetime of the foliage will impact its appearance in the fall. Taking a look back at the spring and summer can give us some hints as to how the fall may go. 

Spring 2021 gave us a pretty smooth start to the warmer weather. The days warmed up about when you would expect, and there was no late frost to surprise us (or the trees with their new and delicate leaf buds!). Late frosts or a slow spring can also slow down fall, but spring conditions like we enjoyed in 2021 bode well for fall colors to come when you’d expect them too. According to this fall foliage map, peak foliage will hit the Front Royal area around October 11, 2021.

​The weather conditions of summer can also affect fall foliage significantly. Rains this summer were plentiful, but not overabundant. Just what trees love! While a particularly hot or dry summer might cause tree stress and less vibrant fall hues, the good conditions this summer have prepared the trees to put on an outstanding display this fall.
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Fall Weather May Reduce the Appearance of Reds
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Of course, it’s not possible to predict the fall foliage entirely from the weather of spring and summer. When fall arrives in Front Royal, it will bring its own combination of weather conditions that can greatly influence the foliage display we see around us.

'Seeing red' ... it's a good thing!

​It’s obviously difficult to predict the fall weather in advance. Long-range weather forecasting is far from an exact science. In fact, many meteorologists will tell you not to trust a forecast of longer than ten days. And they may well be right. But it’s still fun to make some guesses.
 
According to the Farmer’s Almanac, a popular long-range weather forecast source, the Front Royal area will experience a fairly rainy October. The resulting lack of sunshine may dampen the red hues around Front Royal this fall. Sunlight supports the production of anthocyanins, the chemicals responsible for the red hues in fall leaves. If fall 2021 follows Farmer’s Almanac predictions, we’ll still see some red, but not as much as in other years. Regardless, there’ll still be plenty of orange and yellow to enjoy!
 
​Our best prediction: fall foliage will peak mid-October in the Shenandoah Valley, with predominantly orange and yellow tones.

​Our best prediction: fall foliage will be slow to arrive in the Shenandoah Valley, but splendid when it comes.
 

Visit the Shenandoah Valley for Some Lucky Leaf-Peeping

The good news is that while we can’t predict the exact condition or timing of the fall foliage, we can tell you one thing for sure. Any visit to the Shenandoah Valley or the Front Royal area during the fall foliage season will be memorable. Even if your arrival doesn’t quite coincide with the perfect peak of fall foliage, you’ll still be able to enjoy glorious colors, beautiful views, and every essential fall activity that your heart desires.

Shenandoah National Park

After all, the unpredictability of the foliage is part of the fun of leaf-peeping. It’s an exciting pursuit that requires knowledge AND some good luck!